Members of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel in northern Michoacán. Photo: CUARTOSCURO
BOGOTÁ. The global Armed Conflict Data and Location initiative (ACLED) indicated today, upon releasing its annual conflict index, that Mexico is the most dangerous country in the world not at war and one of the ten most violent globally due to the actions of organized crime groups.
According to the report, Mexico, despite not being at war, is considered as dangerous as Palestine and Ukraine, which are facing large-scale armed conflicts: Palestine due to ongoing Israeli attacks despite the ceasefire, and Ukraine due to the Russian invasion.
Furthermore, Mexico appears in the ACLED conflict index as one of the nations with the highest incidence of political violence, with 8,070 such incidents recorded between December 1st, 2024, and November 28th, 2025. The ACLED Conflict Index ranks the 50 most serious conflicts in the world and categorizes them as extreme, high, or turbulent.
Violence in Mexico is “extreme,” according to the global organization, which places nine other nations in the same category: Palestine, Myanmar, Syria, Nigeria, Ecuador, Brazil, Sudan, Haiti, and Pakistan.
ACLED’s senior Latin America analyst, Sandra Pellegrini, noted that the increasing pressure from the administration of US President Donald Trump on the region’s governments regarding security and to align them with its interests “carries considerable risks.”
Hardline security policies, the expert stated, could deepen conflicts in the region as Washington promotes a militarized “war on crime” agenda, and are likely to lead “to continued lethal violence.”
She added that states of emergency and hardline policies have sometimes coincided with reductions in violence, but in some cases, the repression of criminal groups has also contributed to the fragmentation of armed groups.
She mentioned that in Mexico, for example, the kidnapping and extradition to the United States of Sinaloa Cartel leader Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada in July 2024 contributed to triggering one of the deadliest internal conflicts within that criminal group.
According to ACLED, the militarization of the drug war promoted by Trump in the Caribbean and the Pacific, with the destruction of boats allegedly transporting drugs and the murder of their crews, has led armed groups to demonstrate “considerable adaptability” to this pressure.
Criminal organizations have resorted to low-visibility tactics, intensified their operations targeting security forces, and adjusted their illicit activities, including shifting from maritime to air transport or redirecting drug trafficking routes.
“Armed groups have increased their use of explosive-laden drones in several countries, including Colombia and Mexico. If states respond with indiscriminate and militarized tactics, civilians will face a greater risk of exposure,” according to ACLED.
Original article by Rafael Corda, Proceso, December 11th, 2025.
Translated by Schools for Chiapas.