John Mearsheimer is widely regarded as the most important geopolitical analyst in these times of systemic chaos and collapse, offering analyses that are as clear and straightforward as they are profound. He is well worth listening to. In a recent interview, he argues that since 2017 we have entered a multipolar world with the United States, China, and Russia emerging as major powers (Infobae, May 9, 2026).
This transition from unipolarity to multipolarity has profound consequences for the global landscape and ushers in a period of great instability, although he does not put it that way. As Latin Americans, we are interested in his perspective on our continent’s role in Washington’s strategy. “Latin America is the most important region in the world from a strategic standpoint for the United States,” says Mearsheimer.
“The key point is that the United States is a hegemonic power in the Western Hemisphere. It is, by far, the most powerful state in the hemisphere: it dominates all Latin American countries militarily and economically. Therefore, it faces no security threats from its Latin American neighbors and is remarkably secure within the Western Hemisphere. That allows it to focus on East Asia, Europe, and the Persian Gulf,” he concludes.
The United States can tolerate China having close economic ties with Latin America, but it cannot accept them having military ties because that would undermine the Monroe Doctrine.
From the South, Brazilian scholar Carolina Silva Pedroso, a specialist in U.S.-Latin American relations, argues that according to the National Security Strategy released in 2025, “Latin America now occupies a priority position in U.S. policy, replacing the Middle East as the region of central interest” (IHU, June 23, 2026, emphasis mine).
Although these ideas had already been articulated by Nicholas Spykman in the early decades of the last century, it is necessary to reiterate them: the Latin American continent is vital for the United States to maintain a dominant position in the international system. Moreover, it is worth adding, this is especially true when the hegemonic power is in decline and, at times, nearing collapse as a nation.
Based on these analyses, I believe it is necessary and urgent to understand how this reality affects and will affect popular movements and the peoples in motion in our region. This is not more of the same; it is not merely a repetition of the long history of the “backyard,” but rather there are strategic changes we must consider.
The first is the permanent and profound militarization of the continent. What may once have been temporary and circumstantial has now become structural. The militarization of all facets of life—from social relations to nature—is here to stay; it is the core of the economy and the keystone of capital accumulation. No one should believe that this is a deviation from the norm (as coups d’état were), but rather the norm itself for a period that is impossible to determine, though it will not be brief. Therefore, we must reflect on how we are going to resist this new reality.
The second point is that militarization does not depend on who is in power, precisely because it is a structural feature of contemporary capitalism. In this sense, there are no geographical or political boundaries. If we look at progressive governments, we will see that they have taken substantial steps toward militarization in each and every country.
The third point is that patriarchy and colonialism also serve the logic of militarism, which makes them far more dangerous. Hence the brutal rise in femicides, with their extremely predatory methods that destroy the lives and bodies of women and people of color.
The fourth point is that militarism manifests itself in many different ways: from organized crime to social programs, including the “culture” promoted by the media and the ways in which commercialized sports are practiced.
Given this landscape, it is hardly surprising that figures like Keiko Fujimori, Bukele, and now De la Espriella—who share a contempt for life and alliances with criminal organizations and paramilitaries—are coming to power. These are the kinds of people capitalism needs right now.
It is urgent to change strategies, now that nation-states have been fortified to serve capital and welfare states have been dismantled. The two-step strategy—which Wallerstein denounced as a mistake of the old left (coming to power in order to then change the world)—never worked, but now it carries a dangerous bias, because it traps the people.
The new strategies are those that certain communities and movements have been implementing over the past three decades: defense of their territory, self-governance, and self-defense—in other words, the building of autonomous communities.
Original text by Raúl Zibechi published in La Jornada on June 27th, 2026.
Translation by Schools for Chiapas.