While the current situation of undocumented migrants heading to the United States is already drastic and extremely adverse (high socio-material precariousness, very low rates of acceptance of the right to asylum, and frequent human rights violations), it will most likely be worse next year.
During his first term (the four-year term from 2017 to 2020), the next president of the United States (US) was characterized by a series of anti-immigrant actions of clear media visibility and unprecedented violence and cruelty. During this period, the Zero Tolerance Policies were implemented, as well as the Stay in Mexico Program and Title 42 during the pandemic. For purposes of immigration control, and in drastic and structural violations of several human rights and U.S. legal frameworks, U.S. government agencies separated hundreds of migrant families, detained and isolated (imprisoned) children and minors, left sick migrants to die in detention centers, and assaulted and criminalized immigrant populations; they also reinforced and built new portions of the border wall. All this with the objective of sequestering and sealing the U.S.-Mexico border and stopping migration. In addition, in the context of the COVID-19 emergency, there was a political use of the pandemic to seal the borders and carry out massive and express deportations.
Considering this context, the scenario for 2025 is not a good one, especially taking into account two processes.
On the one hand, the appointments of the next U.S. president to positions related to border and migration issues (for example, Homan as border czar, Miller as advisor on migration issues, and, not least, the next U.S. government ambassador to Mexico); remember that, at the end of the last decade, the next border czar was a fierce promoter of some of the most controversial and dehumanizing state policies and actions towards migrants.
On the other hand, it has been announced that there will be a closure and sequestration of the U.S. southern border, as well as an increase in the budgets of ICE and border patrol, and an increase in the number of agents of both institutions; these institutions have been and are a pillar of the U.S. government’s immigration control, and are two of the main agencies for the detention of migrants. Also, despite the illegality of such action, the next U.S. president has spoken of the use of the National Guard for immigration enforcement.
An increase in the use of borders as immigration containment devices is on the horizon, as well as a strong increase in the criminalization of immigration. There will most likely be a political production of (state) violence towards immigrant populations. The next president has made and will make political use of migration to vindicate himself and satisfy his electoral base.
However, it should be noted that the next U.S. government official does not base his decisions and opinions on an analysis of migration processes, nor on the consideration of the effects and contributions of undocumented immigrant populations in the United States.
In the face of biased narratives that are not based on facts and evidence, there are concrete processes based on data that show just the opposite: migrants are not criminals, on the contrary, they have a significant economic contribution, and represent a strong demographic and labor bonus. Some of these processes are described below.
First. Migrants are not a threat, nor are they an “invasion.” They are not a “problem.” In fact, migration (and migrant workers) is a timely process that serves the U.S. government and society economically and occupationally.
Second. As described by the research of the migration and development group of the University of Zacatecas (Raúl Delgado and Humberto Márquez), the United States does not have enough young workers; it needs migrant workers for strategic areas of the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors of its economy. Industrial agricultural production in the U.S. would not be possible without the hundreds of thousands of Mexican migrants who work as day laborers. Migrants are also an indispensable labor force for construction companies and meat packing plants. And a similar scenario is seen in a variety of services, from care and domestic work to delivery services and small businesses.
Third. Undocumented migrants represent a strong demographic bonus (they are young and working age populations), in the context of the USA as a destination country and with a clearly aging population. As Raúl Delgado and Humberto Márquez of the University of Zacatecas have pointed out, migrants foster dynamics of partial youth rejuvenation and provide informal youth labor.
Fourth. Undocumented migrants are not criminals. Of the millions of migrant workers in the U.S., only a very small number have committed serious crimes. Research by various academics at the University of Arizona (Daniel Martinez and his collaborators) has shown that there is no relationship between crime and migration.
Fifth. Nor do migrant populations represent a drain on public resources or a drain on the government. Migrants pay hundreds and thousands of dollars in taxes, and, in addition, generate an important economic flow in the U.S. (through the consumption of diverse goods and services); they are populations that provide dynamism to economic activity in an important way.
Sixth. Migrants, due to the low wages they receive and the precarious working conditions they have, are part of the process of lowering and reducing production costs. This leads to an increase in the profits of employers, and an increase in the wealth of these sectors.
Original text by Guillermo Castillo Ramírez published in Desinformémonos on December 18th, 2024.
Translation by Schools for Chiapas.